From 1998 to 2002 the Sweden‐structured telecommunications equipment company, Ericsson, instituted some stock option programs, thus emulating a distinctly American setting of compensating high‐tech workers. Then in 2003, Ericsson didn’t renew its stock option program. Instead Corporate and business HR developed a distinctive employee stock purchase plan that made central use of an HR tool inherited from the 2001 and 2002 stock option plans to reward a subgroup of outstanding non‐executive employees. The Ericsson experience with commodity shows that corporate and business HR managers can graft an alien mode of settlement onto a well‐developed organizational framework without undermining the integrity of that structure.

Well, yes and no. If the ride-sharing business were frozen to include only the existing players, it is probable that they can come to an uneasy agreement that allows them to create profits. The problem, though, is that the prevailing structure of this business is anything but settled, with new ride sharing options showing up and large technology companies rumored to be on the cusp of jumping in.

The unquestioned winners in the trip posting game are car service customers, who have seen their car service costs decrease while getting more care service options. 23.4 billion, based upon my reading of the market then. Revenues: Uber’s growth continues, measured in cities and rides, although the rate of development has started to slow down, not surprising given its size. Its decision to leave China, the largest trip sharing market in the world, even if it was the right one from the perspective of saving itself from a cash battle, will certainly reduce its potential income in the future. Competition: Before you over-respond to Uber’s leave from China, there is good news in that decision.

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First, by removing the costs associated with going after the China market from the formula, it reduces the issue of cash burn, at least for the near future. Second, its tranquility treaty with Didi Chuxing puts small players in danger. Lyft, Ola, and Grabtaxi, all companies that Didi committed to to stop the Uber juggernaut, may be remaining subjected to competition now.

Third, in substitution for its decision to leave the China market, Uber will get a 20% stake in Didi Chuxing. Costs: On the cost front, the trip-sharing business continuing to evolve, with the majority of the noticeable changes signaling higher costs for the ride sharing companies in the future. Seattle’s decision to let Uber/Lyft drivers unionize could be the precursor of similar developments in other cities and higher charges for both companies. Over the legal front, metropolitan areas continue to provide roadblocks for the ride sharing companies. Uber and Lyft discontinued Austin, after the city passed an ordinance requiring drivers for both services to pass background checks.

23.4 billion. The increased loss of the China market reduces the full, total market size but it is offset by an increased market talk about of the remaining market and a 20% stake in Didi Chuxing. 5 billion to the stake. Clearly, the Saudi Sovereign account, Goldman Fidelity, and Sachs would disagree with me, since their estimated pricing for Uber is more than twin my value.

They could very well be right in their view, and I possibly could be wrong, but my valuation shows my story about the business, which could very well be much less expansive nor as optimistic as the complete tales that they could be telling. The ride-sharing business is within circumstances of flux and the next few months provides more experimentation on the part of companies. A few of these tests will be with the services offered but more of them will be trying to get business models that work at transforming riders to income.

The ride-sharing companies have clearly gained the first stage of the disruption struggle with the taxicab and car service companies and have been compensated with high prices and abundant capital. The next thing will separate the winners from the losers song the trip sharing companies and it is definitely not going to be boring. Update: To the many people who have commented concerning this valuation, I thank you, even if you disagree with me vehemently. To give you some sense of the actual feedback has been across my blog, twitter and email, more of you appear to think that I am being too optimistic than pessimistic about Uber’s future.

Whatever your viewpoint, I don’t state to truly have a monopoly on the right tale for each company that I value in this website and the resulting valuation. However, rather than take issue using what you think is wrong with my tale/valuation, I will suggest that you download the spreadsheet that is attached and make it your story/valuation. Thus, if you believe that my total market size is too low and/or that my judgment on income too pessimistic, replace them with your personal and you will have your own valuation of Uber. Dream Big or Stay Focused?